2. I think formalizing this properly would be part of the task, but if we take the Impact, Neglectedness, Tractability framework, I’m roughly thinking of a decision-making framework that boosts the weight given to impact and lowers the weight given to tractability.
3. I was roughly thinking of an analysis of the approach used by exceptional participants in forecasting tournaments like Tetlock’s. Most of them seem to be doing something Bayesian in flavor, if not strictly Bayesian updating, and with impressive results. I suspect that could have interesting implications for how we understand (the relation of subjectivity to) a Bayesian interpretation of probability.
Thanks for your suggestions! Some answers:
1. Robust decision making. And yes, pretty much, I was thinking of the interpretations covered here: https://plato.stanford.edu/entries/probability-interpret.
2. I think formalizing this properly would be part of the task, but if we take the Impact, Neglectedness, Tractability framework, I’m roughly thinking of a decision-making framework that boosts the weight given to impact and lowers the weight given to tractability.
3. I was roughly thinking of an analysis of the approach used by exceptional participants in forecasting tournaments like Tetlock’s. Most of them seem to be doing something Bayesian in flavor, if not strictly Bayesian updating, and with impressive results. I suspect that could have interesting implications for how we understand (the relation of subjectivity to) a Bayesian interpretation of probability.