It makes me very sceptical of claims like Davidson’s with larger numbers like ’1000x capability’ (edit, it’s actually 1000x in a year! Is that a one-time increase or perpetual explosive growth? It just seems way too strong a claim).
I was wondering why he said that, since I’ve read his report before and that didn’t come up at all. I suppose a few scattered recollections I have are
Tom would probably suggest you play around with the takeoffspeeds playground to gain a better intuition (I couldn’t find anything 1,000x-in-a-year-related at all though)
Capabilities takeoff speed ≠ impact takeoff speed (Tom: “overall I expect impact takeoff speed to be slower than capabilities takeoff, with the important exception that AI’s impact might mostly happen pretty suddenly after we have superhuman AI”)
I was wondering why he said that, since I’ve read his report before and that didn’t come up at all. I suppose a few scattered recollections I have are
Tom would probably suggest you play around with the takeoffspeeds playground to gain a better intuition (I couldn’t find anything 1,000x-in-a-year-related at all though)
Capabilities takeoff speed ≠ impact takeoff speed (Tom: “overall I expect impact takeoff speed to be slower than capabilities takeoff, with the important exception that AI’s impact might mostly happen pretty suddenly after we have superhuman AI”)