There have been some claims that the 538 article put the wrong date on the expert’s forecasts, and we haven’t been able to figure out whether that’s true or not by contacting them, so unfortunately I wouldn’t use the 538 article by itself.
Hey @katy_milkman you seemed to have missed our follow up (and we’ll do another this week) that shows a different picture in case estimates from the surveyed experts. It takes time to understand what’s happening.
There have been some claims that the 538 article put the wrong date on the expert’s forecasts, and we haven’t been able to figure out whether that’s true or not by contacting them, so unfortunately I wouldn’t use the 538 article by itself.
If I’m reading this Tweet thread correctly, anna wiederkehr from 538 seems to say the graphic was correct and the error really is that much.
https://twitter.com/wiederkehra/status/1245026159529807873?s=20
It is further implied by them in another tweet:
https://twitter.com/wiederkehra/status/1244956725150650368?s=20