Personally I think going for something like 50k doesn’t make sense, as I expect that the 5k (or even 500) most engaged people will have a much higher impact than the others.
Also, my guess of how CEA/FTX are thinking about this is actually that they assume an even smaller number (perhaps 2k or so?) because they’re aiming for highly engaged people, and don’t pay as much attention to how many less engaged people they’re causing.
Peter was using a bar of “actually become EA in some meaningful way (e.g., take GWWC pledge or equivalent)”. GWWC is 8k on its own, though there’s probably been substantial attrition.
But yes, because we expect impact to be power-lawish if you order all plausible EAs by impact there will probably not be any especially compelling places to draw a line.
Personally I think going for something like 50k doesn’t make sense, as I expect that the 5k (or even 500) most engaged people will have a much higher impact than the others.
Also, my guess of how CEA/FTX are thinking about this is actually that they assume an even smaller number (perhaps 2k or so?) because they’re aiming for highly engaged people, and don’t pay as much attention to how many less engaged people they’re causing.
Peter was using a bar of “actually become EA in some meaningful way (e.g., take GWWC pledge or equivalent)”. GWWC is 8k on its own, though there’s probably been substantial attrition.
But yes, because we expect impact to be power-lawish if you order all plausible EAs by impact there will probably not be any especially compelling places to draw a line.