Thanks! Agree it’s good to refine these and that these are very optimistic—I suspect the optimism is justified by the track record of these events. Anecdotally, it seems nontrivially common for early positive interactions to motivate new community members to continue/deepen their (social and/or motivational) engagement, and that seems to often lead to impactful career plan changes.
(I think there’s steeply diminishing returns here—someone’s first exposure to the community seems much more potentially impactful than later exposures. I tried to account for “how many participants will be having their first exposure” in the earlier estimate.)
In other words, we could (say) break down the ~1% estimate (which is already conditioned on counterfactual dinner attendance) into the following (ignoring benefits for people who are early on but not totally new):
30% chance that this is their first exposure
conditional on the above, 10% chance that the experience kickstarts long/deep engagement
conditional on the above, 50% chance of an impactful career switch
(although early exposures that aren’t quite the first one also seem valuable)
If 1% is far too generous, which of the above factors are too high? (Maybe the second one?)
(Edited to add) And yup, I acknowledge this isn’t the source you were looking for—hopefully still adds to the conversation.
Thanks! Agree it’s good to refine these and that these are very optimistic—I suspect the optimism is justified by the track record of these events. Anecdotally, it seems nontrivially common for early positive interactions to motivate new community members to continue/deepen their (social and/or motivational) engagement, and that seems to often lead to impactful career plan changes.
(I think there’s steeply diminishing returns here—someone’s first exposure to the community seems much more potentially impactful than later exposures. I tried to account for “how many participants will be having their first exposure” in the earlier estimate.)
In other words, we could (say) break down the ~1% estimate (which is already conditioned on counterfactual dinner attendance) into the following (ignoring benefits for people who are early on but not totally new):
30% chance that this is their first exposure
conditional on the above, 10% chance that the experience kickstarts long/deep engagement
conditional on the above, 50% chance of an impactful career switch (although early exposures that aren’t quite the first one also seem valuable)
If 1% is far too generous, which of the above factors are too high? (Maybe the second one?)
(Edited to add) And yup, I acknowledge this isn’t the source you were looking for—hopefully still adds to the conversation.