You think there’s an x-risk more urgent than AI? What could be? Nanotech isn’t going to be invented within 20 years, there aren’t any asteroids about to hit the earth, climate tail risks only come into effect next century, deadly pandemics or supervolcanic eruptions are inevitable on long timescales but aren’t common enough to be the top source of risk in the time until AGI is invented. The only way anything is more risky than AI within 50 years is if you expect something like a major war leading to usage of enough nuclear or biological weapons that everyone dies, and I really doubt that’s more than 10% likely in the next half century.
Okay, fine. I agree that it’s hard to come up with an x-risk more urgent than AGI. (Though here’s one: digital people being instantiated and made to suffer in large numbers would be an s-risk, and could potentially outweigh the risk of damage done by misaligned AGI over the long term.)
You think there’s an x-risk more urgent than AI? What could be? Nanotech isn’t going to be invented within 20 years, there aren’t any asteroids about to hit the earth, climate tail risks only come into effect next century, deadly pandemics or supervolcanic eruptions are inevitable on long timescales but aren’t common enough to be the top source of risk in the time until AGI is invented. The only way anything is more risky than AI within 50 years is if you expect something like a major war leading to usage of enough nuclear or biological weapons that everyone dies, and I really doubt that’s more than 10% likely in the next half century.
Okay, fine. I agree that it’s hard to come up with an x-risk more urgent than AGI. (Though here’s one: digital people being instantiated and made to suffer in large numbers would be an s-risk, and could potentially outweigh the risk of damage done by misaligned AGI over the long term.)