I donāt think we should defer too much to Ordās x-risk estimates, but since weāre talking about them here goes:
Ordās estimate of total natural risk is 1 in 10,000, which is 160 times less than the total anthropogenic risk (1 in 6).
Risk from engineered pandemics (1 in 30) is within an order of magnitude of risk from misaligned AI (1 in 10), so itās hardly a rounding error (although simeon_c recently argued that Ord āvastly overestimatesā biorisk).
I donāt think we should defer too much to Ordās x-risk estimates, but since weāre talking about them here goes:
Ordās estimate of total natural risk is 1 in 10,000, which is 160 times less than the total anthropogenic risk (1 in 6).
Risk from engineered pandemics (1 in 30) is within an order of magnitude of risk from misaligned AI (1 in 10), so itās hardly a rounding error (although simeon_c recently argued that Ord āvastly overestimatesā biorisk).