Yes (see commentsabove in this thread). I think a smaller amount would not have the same impact (there is already Caplan’s bet with Yudkowsky) - it needs to be actually a significant amount of money. I have actually offered to go up to $250k (worst case I can sell my rental house to pay off the bet; and I do have significant other investments).
So far I am in discussion with a couple of others for similar amounts to the bet in OP, but the problem of guaranteeing my payout is proving quite a difficult one[1]. I guess making it direct donations makes things a lot easier.
My preferred method is trading on my public reputation (which I value higher than the bet amounts); but I can’t expect people to take my word for it.
It could also be done by drawing up a contract with my house as collateral, but I’ve been told that this likely wouldn’t be enforceable.
Then there is using escrow (but the escrow needs to be trusted; and the funds tied up in the escrow—and I prefer to hold crypto, which complicates things).
Then there are crypto smart contracts, but these need to be trusted, and also massively overcollateralised to factor in deep market drawdowns (with the opportunity cost that brings).
Yes (see comments above in this thread). I think a smaller amount would not have the same impact (there is already Caplan’s bet with Yudkowsky) - it needs to be actually a significant amount of money. I have actually offered to go up to $250k (worst case I can sell my rental house to pay off the bet; and I do have significant other investments).
So far I am in discussion with a couple of others for similar amounts to the bet in OP, but the problem of guaranteeing my payout is proving quite a difficult one[1]. I guess making it direct donations makes things a lot easier.
My preferred method is trading on my public reputation (which I value higher than the bet amounts); but I can’t expect people to take my word for it.
It could also be done by drawing up a contract with my house as collateral, but I’ve been told that this likely wouldn’t be enforceable.
Then there is using escrow (but the escrow needs to be trusted; and the funds tied up in the escrow—and I prefer to hold crypto, which complicates things).
Then there are crypto smart contracts, but these need to be trusted, and also massively overcollateralised to factor in deep market drawdowns (with the opportunity cost that brings).