“Back when I was doing predictions for the Good Judgement Project this is something that the top forecasters would use all the time. I don’t recall it being thought inaccurate and the superforecasters were all pretty sharp cookies who were empirically good at making predictions.”
The Facebook post for additional discussion.
And the discussion on Jeff’s FB post: https://www.facebook.com/jefftk/posts/775488981742.
Especially helpful:
“Back when I was doing predictions for the Good Judgement Project this is something that the top forecasters would use all the time. I don’t recall it being thought inaccurate and the superforecasters were all pretty sharp cookies who were empirically good at making predictions.”