It seems as though I’m more optimistic about a ‘simple’ picture of reflection and enlightenment.
When providing the 60⁄40 numbers, I was imagining something like ‘probability that it’s ex-ante good, as opposed to ex-post good’. This distinction is pretty unclear and I certainly didn’t make this clear in my comment.
Are you more optimistic that various different kinds of reflection would tend to yield a fair amount of convergence? Or that our descendants will in fact undertake reflection on human values to a significant degree?
It seems as though I’m more optimistic about a ‘simple’ picture of reflection and enlightenment.
When providing the 60⁄40 numbers, I was imagining something like ‘probability that it’s ex-ante good, as opposed to ex-post good’. This distinction is pretty unclear and I certainly didn’t make this clear in my comment.
Makes sense about ex ante vs ex post. :)
Are you more optimistic that various different kinds of reflection would tend to yield a fair amount of convergence? Or that our descendants will in fact undertake reflection on human values to a significant degree?
More optimistic on both.