The wording you used in the post was about “savvy” investors, but my naive understanding of markets is that the savviness or not doesn’t particularly matter here.
savvy investors cannot expect to get rich by betting on short AI timelines. Such a bet simply ties up your capital until it loses its value (either because you’re dead, or because you’re so rich that it hardly matters). Therefore, a savvy investor with short timelines will simply increase their own consumption.
The short reason is this:
The reason for an investor to make a bet, is that they believe they will profit later
However, if they believe in near-term TAI, savvy investors won’t value future profits (since they’ll be dead or super rich anyways)
Therefore, there is no way for them to win by betting on near-term TAI
If there are non-negligible portions of investors who believe in near-term TAI and also value future profits, doesn’t that put a hole through the argument?
See my response to Carl further up. This follows from accepting the assumptions of the former post. I wanted to show that even with said assumptions, their conclusions don’t follow. But I don’t think the assumptions are realistic either.
The wording you used in the post was about “savvy” investors, but my naive understanding of markets is that the savviness or not doesn’t particularly matter here.
If there are non-negligible portions of investors who believe in near-term TAI and also value future profits, doesn’t that put a hole through the argument?
See my response to Carl further up. This follows from accepting the assumptions of the former post. I wanted to show that even with said assumptions, their conclusions don’t follow. But I don’t think the assumptions are realistic either.
I have updated the post to reflect this