To get e.g. more than 20% probability, it seems like you’d have to make some very bad assumptions (weirdly high base rates of Covid amongst presumptive attendees, combined with incompetence or malice when it comes to testing). Seems more like 1-5% risk.
We’ve added a spreadsheet microcovid estimates for a few different scenarios to our COVID Protocol. You can see the whole protocol here. Link to the estimates here.
Hi Saulius, I’ve done 3 very basic estimates here:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1C6lU4klgisqG150-yR_jZjt253sVrgp2umIbgkUbKbU/edit#gid=0
To get e.g. more than 20% probability, it seems like you’d have to make some very bad assumptions (weirdly high base rates of Covid amongst presumptive attendees, combined with incompetence or malice when it comes to testing). Seems more like 1-5% risk.
Thank you Matt!! After reading your answer I bought the ticket :)
Thanks for the suggestion!
We’ve added a spreadsheet microcovid estimates for a few different scenarios to our COVID Protocol. You can see the whole protocol here. Link to the estimates here.
See you soon :)