Good question :) I researched aquatic noise because that was the only intervention where it seemed at least possible for me to estimate cost-effectiveness. But the estimate ended up being so uncertain that it didn’t provide much information. Science simply doesn’t have answers yet. I expect it to be the same for most WAW interventions. That is, I expect there to be huge uncertainty on how cost-effective they are (and whether they are even good for WAW when all things are considered), and in the best-case scenario, they might be as cost-effective as farmed animal welfare interventions. But we might never find out if we are in the best-case scenario. It’s difficult for me to say that aquatic noise is not worth looking into further because I spent like six months researching it but I think that for now there are enough better ideas in farmed animal welfare space so I don’t think we should pursue it. I can see WAW interventions being worth it if the animal advocacy movement gets a lot more funding or, I don’t know, very advanced artificial intelligence can be used to figure out all ecological consequences of nature somehow. Assuming AI does not change everything, I’d give a 15% chance that in the next 15 years, someone will find a WAW intervention that to me would seem “directly cost-effective (10%+ as cost-effective in expectation as chicken welfare reforms)” and “non-controversial (>40% support and <30% oppose in a US poll).” I’m not counting WAW interventions that have to do with the far future or changing values of the society here.
NOTE: I edited the shortform text to match what I say here. I used to say that I’m on the fence whether EA resources should be spent on reducing aquatic noise.
Good question :) I researched aquatic noise because that was the only intervention where it seemed at least possible for me to estimate cost-effectiveness. But the estimate ended up being so uncertain that it didn’t provide much information. Science simply doesn’t have answers yet. I expect it to be the same for most WAW interventions. That is, I expect there to be huge uncertainty on how cost-effective they are (and whether they are even good for WAW when all things are considered), and in the best-case scenario, they might be as cost-effective as farmed animal welfare interventions. But we might never find out if we are in the best-case scenario. It’s difficult for me to say that aquatic noise is not worth looking into further because I spent like six months researching it but I think that for now there are enough better ideas in farmed animal welfare space so I don’t think we should pursue it. I can see WAW interventions being worth it if the animal advocacy movement gets a lot more funding or, I don’t know, very advanced artificial intelligence can be used to figure out all ecological consequences of nature somehow. Assuming AI does not change everything, I’d give a 15% chance that in the next 15 years, someone will find a WAW intervention that to me would seem “directly cost-effective (10%+ as cost-effective in expectation as chicken welfare reforms)” and “non-controversial (>40% support and <30% oppose in a US poll).” I’m not counting WAW interventions that have to do with the far future or changing values of the society here.
NOTE: I edited the shortform text to match what I say here. I used to say that I’m on the fence whether EA resources should be spent on reducing aquatic noise.