In my opinion, the singularity hypothesis is the widely held EA belief that is the least backed by evidence or even argumentation. People will just throw out claims like “AGI will solve cold fusion in 6 months”, or “AGI will cure death within our lifetime” without feeling the need to provide any caveats or arguments in their favor, as if the imminent arrival of god-AI is obvious common knowledge.
I’m not saying you can’t believe this stuff (although I believe you will be wrong), but at least treat them like the extraordinary claims they are.
Just noting that these are possibly much stronger claims than “AGI will be able to completely disempower humanity” (depending on how hard it is to solve cold fusion a-posteriori).
I think these articles are very good.
In my opinion, the singularity hypothesis is the widely held EA belief that is the least backed by evidence or even argumentation. People will just throw out claims like “AGI will solve cold fusion in 6 months”, or “AGI will cure death within our lifetime” without feeling the need to provide any caveats or arguments in their favor, as if the imminent arrival of god-AI is obvious common knowledge.
I’m not saying you can’t believe this stuff (although I believe you will be wrong), but at least treat them like the extraordinary claims they are.
Just noting that these are possibly much stronger claims than “AGI will be able to completely disempower humanity” (depending on how hard it is to solve cold fusion a-posteriori).