Hereâs a framework I use for A or B decisions. There are 3 scenarios:
One is clearly better than the other.
They are both about the same
Iâm not sure; more data is needed.
1 & 2 are easy. In the first case, choose the better one. In the second, choose the one that in your gut you like better (or use the âflip a coinâ trick, and notice if you have any resistance to the âwinnerâ. Thatâs a great reason to go with the âloserâ).
Itâs the third case thatâs hard. It requires more research or more analysis. But hereâs the thing: there are costs to doing this work. You have to decide if the opportunity cost to delve in is worth the investment to increase the odds of making the better choice.
My experience shows thatâespecially for people who lean heavily on logic and rationality like myself đâwe tend to overweight âgetting it rightâ at the expense of making a decision and moving on. Switching costs are often lower than you think, and failing fast is actually a great outcome. Unless you are sending a rover to Mars where there is literally no opportunity to âfix it in post-â, I suggest you do a a nominal amount of research and analysis, then make a decision and move onto other things in your life. Revisit as needed.
Note that A or B decisions are often false dichotomies, and you may be overlooking alternative options that combine the advantages. So narrowing in on given options too soon may sometimes be a mistake, and it can be useful to try to come up with more alternatives.
Also, in my experience many of the decisions I get stuck with fall somewhere between 2 and 3: I know their implications and have most of the information, but the results differ on various dimensions. E.g. option 1 is safe and somewhat impactful, while option 2 is potentially higher impact but much riskier and comes at the cost of disappointing somebody you care about.
Iâm not sure to what degree a decision doc is suitable for these types of problems in particularâbut Iâve at least had a few cases where friends came up with some helpful way to reframe the situation that led to a valuable insight.
(But I should mention I definitely see your point that many EAs may be overthinking some of their decisionsâthough even then I personally wouldnât feel comfortable in case of value conflicts to just flip a coin. But in many other cases I agree that getting to any decision quickly rather then getting stuck in decision paralysis is a good approach.)
Hereâs a framework I use for A or B decisions. There are 3 scenarios:
One is clearly better than the other.
They are both about the same
Iâm not sure; more data is needed.
1 & 2 are easy. In the first case, choose the better one. In the second, choose the one that in your gut you like better (or use the âflip a coinâ trick, and notice if you have any resistance to the âwinnerâ. Thatâs a great reason to go with the âloserâ).
Itâs the third case thatâs hard. It requires more research or more analysis. But hereâs the thing: there are costs to doing this work. You have to decide if the opportunity cost to delve in is worth the investment to increase the odds of making the better choice.
My experience shows thatâespecially for people who lean heavily on logic and rationality like myself đâwe tend to overweight âgetting it rightâ at the expense of making a decision and moving on. Switching costs are often lower than you think, and failing fast is actually a great outcome. Unless you are sending a rover to Mars where there is literally no opportunity to âfix it in post-â, I suggest you do a a nominal amount of research and analysis, then make a decision and move onto other things in your life. Revisit as needed.
Note that A or B decisions are often false dichotomies, and you may be overlooking alternative options that combine the advantages. So narrowing in on given options too soon may sometimes be a mistake, and it can be useful to try to come up with more alternatives.
Also, in my experience many of the decisions I get stuck with fall somewhere between 2 and 3: I know their implications and have most of the information, but the results differ on various dimensions. E.g. option 1 is safe and somewhat impactful, while option 2 is potentially higher impact but much riskier and comes at the cost of disappointing somebody you care about. Iâm not sure to what degree a decision doc is suitable for these types of problems in particularâbut Iâve at least had a few cases where friends came up with some helpful way to reframe the situation that led to a valuable insight.
(But I should mention I definitely see your point that many EAs may be overthinking some of their decisionsâthough even then I personally wouldnât feel comfortable in case of value conflicts to just flip a coin. But in many other cases I agree that getting to any decision quickly rather then getting stuck in decision paralysis is a good approach.)