The increased concern about downside risk has also made it much harder to ‘use up’ your dedication.
Thanks for articulating that—it was a undefined sense of ill-ease, that I now have words for. When I joined EA initially I naively thought everything I did (donating, outreach) was certainly net positive, and I could boldly dedicate away! The uncertainty I now feel about everything makes motivation harder and deprives me of the satisfaction I used to get (especially as my brain prefers to fixate on the possible negatives, rather than the expected value).
Thanks for articulating that—it was a undefined sense of ill-ease, that I now have words for. When I joined EA initially I naively thought everything I did (donating, outreach) was certainly net positive, and I could boldly dedicate away! The uncertainty I now feel about everything makes motivation harder and deprives me of the satisfaction I used to get (especially as my brain prefers to fixate on the possible negatives, rather than the expected value).
A possible solution to this problem is to ‘use up’ your dedication in systematic research working to resolve important uncertainties.
As I stated in this comment, it’s far from a consensus actions like donating or outreach are of an ambiguous sign.