I imagine the financial claim isnât that offering financial support doesnât work, but a claim more likeâthere arenât enough resources to offer enough financial support to enough people to meaningfully alter the US fertility rate on the basis of this alone.
Likeâhow much does it take to raise a child? Iâve heard 250k, so letâs go with that. You donât need to offer the entire amount as financial support, but something like 5k/âyear seems reasonable. Across 18 years, thatâs still $90,000. That means that if you give a billion dollars away as financial support, with zero overheads, youâve supported the birth of ~11,000 children. This is a rounding error compared to the size of the issue, so I wouldnât see it as âdirectly moving the â. To directly move the needle at a cost of 90k/âchild, youâd need to invest hundreds of billions of dollars. It would probably work effectively, but the resources just arenât there in private philanthropy.
By contrast, political advocacy actually could work on the scales that weâre talking about.
I imagine the financial claim isnât that offering financial support doesnât work, but a claim more likeâthere arenât enough resources to offer enough financial support to enough people to meaningfully alter the US fertility rate on the basis of this alone.
Likeâhow much does it take to raise a child? Iâve heard 250k, so letâs go with that. You donât need to offer the entire amount as financial support, but something like 5k/âyear seems reasonable. Across 18 years, thatâs still $90,000. That means that if you give a billion dollars away as financial support, with zero overheads, youâve supported the birth of ~11,000 children. This is a rounding error compared to the size of the issue, so I wouldnât see it as âdirectly moving the â. To directly move the needle at a cost of 90k/âchild, youâd need to invest hundreds of billions of dollars. It would probably work effectively, but the resources just arenât there in private philanthropy.
By contrast, political advocacy actually could work on the scales that weâre talking about.
Yeah, this is what I meant. Thanks, Jay!