My guess is that AI adoption in developing countries will substantially lag adoption in rich countries. Firstly because this is true of most technologies, and secondly because AI adoption will be faster in places where labor costs are higher—ie rich countries with higher wages. This is why when US companies gained FDI access to China, they became less likely to use automation technologies. (Source) Even when it is adopted, within-country adoption lags will probably be substantial, and services are nontradable, so even if AI services are widely used in one city, they can’t exactly be exported from there. So my guess is that AI will not have a first order impact on the service sector in developing countries.
My guess is that AI adoption in developing countries will substantially lag adoption in rich countries. Firstly because this is true of most technologies, and secondly because AI adoption will be faster in places where labor costs are higher—ie rich countries with higher wages. This is why when US companies gained FDI access to China, they became less likely to use automation technologies. (Source) Even when it is adopted, within-country adoption lags will probably be substantial, and services are nontradable, so even if AI services are widely used in one city, they can’t exactly be exported from there. So my guess is that AI will not have a first order impact on the service sector in developing countries.