For example Kokotajlo’s distribution implies a 28% chance transformative AI will happen during the current presidential term, a 35% chance it will happen in the next term, a 13% chance it will be the one after that, with 24% left over spread among ever more distant terms
There is even more uncertainty in AI Futures’ artificial superintelligence (ASI) timelines. The difference between the 90th and 10th percentile is 168 years for Daniel Kokotajlo (2027 to 2195), and 137 years for Eli Lifland (2028 to 2165).
Hi Toby. Thanks for the relevant post.
There is even more uncertainty in AI Futures’ artificial superintelligence (ASI) timelines. The difference between the 90th and 10th percentile is 168 years for Daniel Kokotajlo (2027 to 2195), and 137 years for Eli Lifland (2028 to 2165).