There results are pretty interesting! I’m surprised at how much optimism there is about 25 unique people/groups compared to 100 total entries; my intuition for expecting an average of about 4 entries per person/group was that most would only submit 1-2, but it only takes a few to submit on many questions to drive the average up substantially.
Some meta forecasting questions:
And the same on Manifold markets: here and here
There results are pretty interesting! I’m surprised at how much optimism there is about 25 unique people/groups compared to 100 total entries; my intuition for expecting an average of about 4 entries per person/group was that most would only submit 1-2, but it only takes a few to submit on many questions to drive the average up substantially.