Will the Impactful Forecasting Prize get entries from at least 25 unique people/groups?Will the Impactful Forecasting Prize get entries from at least 25 unique people/groups?Will the Impactful Forecasting Prize get at least 100 total entries?Will the Impactful Forecasting Prize get at least 100 total entries?
There results are pretty interesting! I’m surprised at how much optimism there is about 25 unique people/groups compared to 100 total entries; my intuition for expecting an average of about 4 entries per person/group was that most would only submit 1-2, but it only takes a few to submit on many questions to drive the average up substantially.
Some meta forecasting questions:
And the same on Manifold markets: here and here
There results are pretty interesting! I’m surprised at how much optimism there is about 25 unique people/groups compared to 100 total entries; my intuition for expecting an average of about 4 entries per person/group was that most would only submit 1-2, but it only takes a few to submit on many questions to drive the average up substantially.