From a quick check on the Global Burden of Disease Survey (GBD) [https://vizhub.healthdata.org/gbd-results/], restricting to wealthy countries, we get the burden of melanomia to be 73.34 DALYs per 100,000 (counting both death and disability) and the incidence to be 19.19 per 100,000 per year . So the burden per case of melanomia is 73.14/19.19 = 3.8 DALYs.
This gives a higher estimate for the impact of the intervention on cancer, as you are essentially using 10*0.08 = 0.8 DALYs per cancer case.
I expect “the extent to which preventing a sunburn reduces cancer risk” is the most unknown quantity, however.
Nice, this is fun to read!
From a quick check on the Global Burden of Disease Survey (GBD) [https://vizhub.healthdata.org/gbd-results/], restricting to wealthy countries, we get the burden of melanomia to be 73.34 DALYs per 100,000 (counting both death and disability) and the incidence to be 19.19 per 100,000 per year . So the burden per case of melanomia is 73.14/19.19 = 3.8 DALYs.
This gives a higher estimate for the impact of the intervention on cancer, as you are essentially using 10*0.08 = 0.8 DALYs per cancer case.
I expect “the extent to which preventing a sunburn reduces cancer risk” is the most unknown quantity, however.
Thanks, that is really useful information!
I think I’ll wait for a bit more feedback to come in and then update this post with the new information.