Yeah I thought this piece was spot on, thanks for crossposting.
Only thing I’d add is that I wish there was a clearer public forecasting track record. If there were then for certain areas (eg covid and geopolitics) we would be able to be judged on who gave good forecasts.
(Though forecasting is hard and revealing and the people at the top of those hierarchies wouldn’t want to have to do it, I guess, but it would serve up and comers well)
Yeah I thought this piece was spot on, thanks for crossposting.
Only thing I’d add is that I wish there was a clearer public forecasting track record. If there were then for certain areas (eg covid and geopolitics) we would be able to be judged on who gave good forecasts.
(Though forecasting is hard and revealing and the people at the top of those hierarchies wouldn’t want to have to do it, I guess, but it would serve up and comers well)