Create prediction markets and forecasting questions on AI risk and biorisk. I have been awarded an FTX Future Fund grant and I work part-time at a prediction market.
Use my connections on Twitter to raise the profile of these predictions and increase the chance that decision-makers discuss these issues.
I am uncertain about how to run an org for my FTXFF grant and whether prediction markets will be a good indicator in practice.
Sorry, what would you title it? I was trying to be in the same vein as the first post.
I think maybe let’s revisit in a month. It’s easy for these things to loom larger than they are.
I think this is something to be careful of but I think putting it on a risk register or saying people shouldn’t do it is a big step. And not what people do with other relationships.
Seems more of a post hoc justification than a coherent position regardless of relationship type.
I think until we choose that group this is a non-awful way of doing that?
A couple of times I’ve probably been too defensive about people saying things behind my back. That’s not how I want to behave. I’m sorry.
Not sure I buy that it’s a top priority though, unless we’re talking about our understanding of ourselves.
Yeah I think this is underrated. Also ways to think well about these countries. What should our mental models contain?
I dunno, we’re talking about risks worth monitoring or being bad signals. That’s about the edge cases.
I don’t want a big list of rules of things EAs should or shouldn’t do.
What would that convention look like?
I think another option is to have reactions on a paragraph level. That would be interesting.
59 people.
Being able to agree and disagreevote on posts feels like it might be great. Props to the forum team.
Can you suggest how you’d word it?
I found the 17% of people who agreed that there shouldn’t be discussion of polyamory a little upsetting. I doubt they really meant it the way it came across but it felt judgemental.
I think in general I dislike much of the EA is too weird discussion tonally. As if weirdness is something that’s cheap to change rather than very expensive.
While true, I think this discussion is really hard to have. I don’t think EA tends to be good at discussing it’s internal workings. What scandal discussions have gone well?
We fixed the results page on the poll so here they are.
Poll: https://viewpoints.xyz/polls/nonlinear-and-community-norms
Results: https://viewpoints.xyz/polls/nonlinear-and-community-norms/results
Surprisingly little agreement on this poll. Unlike most polls I post there is some chance of fake responses here. I dunno, but 154 is a lot of respondents.
A huge chunk of disagreements
Personally I think the answers to this question are pretty wild and deserve more scrutiny. Do 22% of us really think this?
Also a lot where people thought the question was misframed.
I fixed the results page of the poll and I think it’s pretty interesting.
Poll: https://viewpoints.xyz/polls/ea-norms
Results: https://viewpoints.xyz/polls/ea-norms/results
Most EAs seem to think some of these risk behaviours are fine.
Likewise there is a lot of disagreement.
And there was a lot of uncertainty (the question mark option)
Lol well no wonder then. Thanks both.
Probably not that representative, no. I guess like 3-6/10