To add to this, I would like to emphasize the lack of reasoning transparency in the current estimates as one of our main concerns—and not just the estimates of the value of additional high-impact EAs—but especially those of the value of community building roles at (top) universities and to what degree university groups ‘create’ these high-impact EAs (which potentially becomes even more dubious when HEAs are used as a proxy metric for impact, for reasons similar to your first bullet point).
We originally had these estimates as the main red teaming topic in mind, but we soon figured out there wasn’t enough substance to turn this topic into a red team by itself, as the estimates mainly seemed to stem from guesstimates.
To add to this, I would like to emphasize the lack of reasoning transparency in the current estimates as one of our main concerns—and not just the estimates of the value of additional high-impact EAs—but especially those of the value of community building roles at (top) universities and to what degree university groups ‘create’ these high-impact EAs (which potentially becomes even more dubious when HEAs are used as a proxy metric for impact, for reasons similar to your first bullet point).
We originally had these estimates as the main red teaming topic in mind, but we soon figured out there wasn’t enough substance to turn this topic into a red team by itself, as the estimates mainly seemed to stem from guesstimates.