Something that I personally would find super valuable is to see you work through a forecasting problem “live” (in text). Take an AI question that you would like to forecast, and then describe how you actually go about making that forecast. The information you seek out, how you analyze it, and especially how you make it quantitative. That would
make the forecast process more transparent for someone who wanted to apply skepticism to your bottom line
help me “compare notes”, ie work through the same forecasting question that you pose, come to a conclusion, and eventually see how my reasoning compares to yours.
This exercise does double duty as “substantive take about the world for readers who want an answer” and “guide to forecasting for readers who want to do the same”.
Something that I personally would find super valuable is to see you work through a forecasting problem “live” (in text). Take an AI question that you would like to forecast, and then describe how you actually go about making that forecast. The information you seek out, how you analyze it, and especially how you make it quantitative. That would
make the forecast process more transparent for someone who wanted to apply skepticism to your bottom line
help me “compare notes”, ie work through the same forecasting question that you pose, come to a conclusion, and eventually see how my reasoning compares to yours.
This exercise does double duty as “substantive take about the world for readers who want an answer” and “guide to forecasting for readers who want to do the same”.