Thanks for clarifying, and sharing the data, Molly!
That is the standard deviation in percentage points.
I thought it was something else because you have “%” after the medians, but no “pp” after the standard deviations. For future occasions, you could add “pp” either after the standard deviations or in the headers.
Here are a couple more summary stats for the superforecasters, for the 2030 question.
I am surprised to see the minimum AI extinction risk until the end of 2030 is 0 for all stages. I wonder whether the values were rounded, or you had discrete options for the values which could be inputted and some forecasters selected 0 as the closest value (in a linear scale) to their best guess. I think superforecasters predicting an astronomically low extinction risk would be fine, but guessing a value of exactly 0 would be a pretty bad sign, as one cannot be infinitely confident humans will not go extinct.
Thanks for clarifying, and sharing the data, Molly!
I thought it was something else because you have “%” after the medians, but no “pp” after the standard deviations. For future occasions, you could add “pp” either after the standard deviations or in the headers.
I am surprised to see the minimum AI extinction risk until the end of 2030 is 0 for all stages. I wonder whether the values were rounded, or you had discrete options for the values which could be inputted and some forecasters selected 0 as the closest value (in a linear scale) to their best guess. I think superforecasters predicting an astronomically low extinction risk would be fine, but guessing a value of exactly 0 would be a pretty bad sign, as one cannot be infinitely confident humans will not go extinct.