(Based on feedback I’ve updated the dock to say “at least 1 month”)
This is largely me aggregating numbers from people I respect, and my views are in flux (e.g. above)
That said I think it makes sense on a couple of grounds:
if you are below the age of 40 and/or have a mild case, this is ~enough food to ride out a self quarantine after showing symptoms (recovery time estimates vary widely, but I’ve seen 14-30 days)
This is also enough food to self quarantine for the estimated incubation period (5-14 days, with some reports of 20-25 days) if you think you might have been exposed.
My model is that there may be short-term food shocks as well, e.g. runs on grocery stores after more cases are discovered in the U.S. 1 month seems like probably 4x what you need for one of those.
The way I view a food stock is to minimize the number of trips to high-risk places like grocery stores (as a young, healthy person). For people over 40 I don’t much more food, say 4 months is crazy because it might make more sense to completely self-isolate with higher mortality risk.
As for when it makes sense to start eating stocks instead of grocery shopping or going out, its really hard to say. I personally plan on evaluating each public trip based on the logic of how many people are infected in my area * adjustment for undertesting * number of people who have been to the location I am visiting in the last week * ppe safety likelihood . A lot of magic is happening in the adjustment for undertesting bit. I expect this to mean that I avoid crowded restaurants and grocery stores at peak hours starting nowish. My guess is I will choose to start eating my food stocks and only making rare large restock trips somewhere in the 100s of cases in U.S. but I’m not sure.
The UK’s National Health Service is advising that it’s fine to continue accepting grocery deliveries even when you have coronavirus.
If you live somewhere with multiple grocery services and are somewhat flexible with what you eat, I don’t predict needing a food stockpile, although it doesn’t necessarily seem harmful to buy a few canned goods!
I definitely agree that its not a certainty you will need a food stock.
I think my view is stronger than “it doesn’t necessarily seem harmful to”, though. Chinese cities under quarantine have managed to continue food delivery, but my impression is that this relies on state-organized supply lines and infection control measures (like measuring temperature of food preparer and deliverer) which are harder to imagine being executed well in the U.S. I’ve also seen stories of people starving in their homes, but not from credible sources (and anecdotal besides).
I’ll point out, as I think I did above, that viruses related to this one can survive on surfaces for a long time (1- 9 days, a source). This suggests that without knowledge that your delivery person and food preppers are healthy and/or correctly using PPE, you are taking a risk with each delivery.
My median case is that most people will be glad to have the amount of food I advised. It opens up a lot of risk-reducing options in an event like this.
Can you say more about why 1 month, instead of 2 weeks or 3 months or some other length of time?
Also can you say something about how to decide when to start eating from stored food, instead of going out to buy new food or ordering food online?
(Based on feedback I’ve updated the dock to say “at least 1 month”)
This is largely me aggregating numbers from people I respect, and my views are in flux (e.g. above)
That said I think it makes sense on a couple of grounds:
if you are below the age of 40 and/or have a mild case, this is ~enough food to ride out a self quarantine after showing symptoms (recovery time estimates vary widely, but I’ve seen 14-30 days)
This is also enough food to self quarantine for the estimated incubation period (5-14 days, with some reports of 20-25 days) if you think you might have been exposed.
My model is that there may be short-term food shocks as well, e.g. runs on grocery stores after more cases are discovered in the U.S. 1 month seems like probably 4x what you need for one of those.
The way I view a food stock is to minimize the number of trips to high-risk places like grocery stores (as a young, healthy person). For people over 40 I don’t much more food, say 4 months is crazy because it might make more sense to completely self-isolate with higher mortality risk.
As for when it makes sense to start eating stocks instead of grocery shopping or going out, its really hard to say. I personally plan on evaluating each public trip based on the logic of
how many people are infected in my area * adjustment for undertesting * number of people who have been to the location I am visiting in the last week * ppe safety likelihood. A lot of magic is happening in the adjustment for undertesting bit. I expect this to mean that I avoid crowded restaurants and grocery stores at peak hours starting nowish. My guess is I will choose to start eating my food stocks and only making rare large restock trips somewhere in the 100s of cases in U.S. but I’m not sure.Would welcome any other ways to think about this.
The UK’s National Health Service is advising that it’s fine to continue accepting grocery deliveries even when you have coronavirus.
If you live somewhere with multiple grocery services and are somewhat flexible with what you eat, I don’t predict needing a food stockpile, although it doesn’t necessarily seem harmful to buy a few canned goods!
I definitely agree that its not a certainty you will need a food stock.
I think my view is stronger than “it doesn’t necessarily seem harmful to”, though. Chinese cities under quarantine have managed to continue food delivery, but my impression is that this relies on state-organized supply lines and infection control measures (like measuring temperature of food preparer and deliverer) which are harder to imagine being executed well in the U.S. I’ve also seen stories of people starving in their homes, but not from credible sources (and anecdotal besides).
I’ll point out, as I think I did above, that viruses related to this one can survive on surfaces for a long time (1- 9 days, a source). This suggests that without knowledge that your delivery person and food preppers are healthy and/or correctly using PPE, you are taking a risk with each delivery.
My median case is that most people will be glad to have the amount of food I advised. It opens up a lot of risk-reducing options in an event like this.