3. This means the virus is going to spread. Both models and reference class forecasting against diseases with similar R0 suggest that a large fraction of the population will be infected before treatments arrive, e.g. Harvard School of Public Health’s Marc Lipsitch citing 40-70% of population infected.
Do you have any thoughts on the Metaculus estimate?
Do you have any thoughts on the Metaculus estimate?
I think it is a little low but right order of magnitude (lower when you asked this question).