On personal risk: a calculation I am stealing from a friend (who I believe does not want credit) suggests a young person’s risk after catching is around 1000 micromorts (based on ~.1% young healthy person’s IFR). This is doubling or tripling your risk of dying in a given year. See also Beth’s comment about chronic fatigue, and note the unknown immunity period etc. I’m not super psyched about those personal risks (if I were to catch it).
This stands if you take best guess if you take the median parameters for things. It seems like if we were to actually propagate uncertainty over the values of parameters like per-age IFR, long-term follow-on conditions like chronic fatigue, infection risk in location of origin, infection risk in San Francisco, infection risk from domestic and international air travel, the posterior distribution looks pretty different. In particular, I’d guess a mildly risk averse (say 75th percentile) decision point would say that cancelling EAG saves a fair bit more than 10 micromorts per person, given how bad current information is.
Other random things:
-SF seems a likely place for an early outbreak given community transmission was first documented in Nor Cal and east asia travel links
-There might be some signalling benefit
-EAs probably have higher risk of infecting other EAs outside the conference
-Conference attendees are generally young but some may be at much higher personal risk because of age or comorbidities.
I don’t know if these points are conclusive. On a meta-level, my doc is really intended for friends and family and is not trying to weigh in on this point.
Yeah, its a good point.
On personal risk: a calculation I am stealing from a friend (who I believe does not want credit) suggests a young person’s risk after catching is around 1000 micromorts (based on ~.1% young healthy person’s IFR). This is doubling or tripling your risk of dying in a given year. See also Beth’s comment about chronic fatigue, and note the unknown immunity period etc. I’m not super psyched about those personal risks (if I were to catch it).
This stands if you take best guess if you take the median parameters for things. It seems like if we were to actually propagate uncertainty over the values of parameters like per-age IFR, long-term follow-on conditions like chronic fatigue, infection risk in location of origin, infection risk in San Francisco, infection risk from domestic and international air travel, the posterior distribution looks pretty different. In particular, I’d guess a mildly risk averse (say 75th percentile) decision point would say that cancelling EAG saves a fair bit more than 10 micromorts per person, given how bad current information is.
Other random things:
-SF seems a likely place for an early outbreak given community transmission was first documented in Nor Cal and east asia travel links
-There might be some signalling benefit
-EAs probably have higher risk of infecting other EAs outside the conference
-Conference attendees are generally young but some may be at much higher personal risk because of age or comorbidities.
I don’t know if these points are conclusive. On a meta-level, my doc is really intended for friends and family and is not trying to weigh in on this point.