On 2, I think there are quite a number of techniques that give you quantitative risk estimates, and it’s quite routine in safety engineering and often required (e.g. to demonstrate that you have achieved 1e-4 fatality threshold and any further risk reduction is impractical). I don’t fully understand most of the techniques listed in ISO31010, but it seems that a number of them do give quantitative risk estimates as a result the risk evaluation process, e.g. monte carlo, bayesian networks, F/​N diagrams, VaR, toxicological risk assessment, etc.
If you haven’t already seen this paper on risk modelling, they use FTA and bayesian networks to estimate risks quantitatively.
Yeah 1 and 3 seems right to me, thanks.
On 2, I think there are quite a number of techniques that give you quantitative risk estimates, and it’s quite routine in safety engineering and often required (e.g. to demonstrate that you have achieved 1e-4 fatality threshold and any further risk reduction is impractical). I don’t fully understand most of the techniques listed in ISO31010, but it seems that a number of them do give quantitative risk estimates as a result the risk evaluation process, e.g. monte carlo, bayesian networks, F/​N diagrams, VaR, toxicological risk assessment, etc.
If you haven’t already seen this paper on risk modelling, they use FTA and bayesian networks to estimate risks quantitatively.