I’ll try to phrase this question as: let’s say the standard EA cost-effectiveness threshold for saving a life is $5000 (that’s roughly what it is). Are there any charities (presumably EA ones) where if I donate $5,000 (enough to save a life on average), I can be
nearly certain (let’s say 95% sure) that my cash has been spent in ways that caused at least one life to be saved
that would not have been saved if I had not given them $5,000?
Great question, and I’m not sure there actually is one at present, because charities that are significantly more cost-effective than this threshold or that can demonstrate conclusive lifesaving at about this threshold tend to acquire donation reserves so additional money to them doesn’t result in them being able to spend it—that’s basically why the threshold exists, it’s sort of determined by the amount of money EA-inclined donors have available to direct.
Although actually now I think of it there might be something to do with HIV treatment now that PEPFAR money has been pulled. If someone with HIV doesn’t get HIV treatment they will die (unless they are very rarely the person who is naturally immune). And there’s a huge funding gap in that space. So if I were so inclined to care about concreteness in the way you do, that’s where I’d go hunting.
I’ll try to phrase this question as: let’s say the standard EA cost-effectiveness threshold for saving a life is $5000 (that’s roughly what it is). Are there any charities (presumably EA ones) where if I donate $5,000 (enough to save a life on average), I can be
nearly certain (let’s say 95% sure) that my cash has been spent in ways that caused at least one life to be saved
that would not have been saved if I had not given them $5,000?
Great question, and I’m not sure there actually is one at present, because charities that are significantly more cost-effective than this threshold or that can demonstrate conclusive lifesaving at about this threshold tend to acquire donation reserves so additional money to them doesn’t result in them being able to spend it—that’s basically why the threshold exists, it’s sort of determined by the amount of money EA-inclined donors have available to direct.
Although actually now I think of it there might be something to do with HIV treatment now that PEPFAR money has been pulled. If someone with HIV doesn’t get HIV treatment they will die (unless they are very rarely the person who is naturally immune). And there’s a huge funding gap in that space. So if I were so inclined to care about concreteness in the way you do, that’s where I’d go hunting.
Any specific recommendations?