I thought “Causality might diverge from conditionality” is a big problem for “classic futarchy” too? E.g. if we’re betting on welfare conditional on policy A and on welfare conditional on policy B, the market price for welfare conditional on policy A = expected welfare conditional on [policy A has the highest expected welfare at market close and thus is implemented] (or something) > expected welfare counterfactually conditional on policy A. I guess the “>” approaches “=” near market closing time, under certain reasonable assumptions? Huh.
I thought “Causality might diverge from conditionality” is a big problem for “classic futarchy” too? E.g. if we’re betting on welfare conditional on policy A and on welfare conditional on policy B, the market price for welfare conditional on policy A = expected welfare conditional on [policy A has the highest expected welfare at market close and thus is implemented] (or something) > expected welfare counterfactually conditional on policy A. I guess the “>” approaches “=” near market closing time, under certain reasonable assumptions? Huh.