In A&S’ paper, they assume a 5 year construction time for solar captors, which is essentially the doubling time. That is actually extremely conservative, especially if we’re considering post-AGI robotics. I imagine the construction time from asteroid material to solar captors might be on the order of days to weeks, but I definitely want to look into that. Great point. There might be other fundamental constraints though. The rate limiting factor is probably more likely to be a rare material required for something like onboard computers, or argon for ion thrusters, something like that.
I think the comparison to economic might is interesting. But a weaker actor on Earth trailing far behind the leading economic power could initiate Dyson swarm construction and overtake the leader with either a huge investment or a lead time. It’s not so much that they would wait around, but that they would change their strategy from building economic might on Earth to power generation in space[1]. In the end, if it’s the long-term future that has the most moral value, then the most important strategic outcome is who has control of that future. All the economic might of Earth cannot compete with a Dyson swarm[2], so the Dyson swarm owner has control of the future. Economic might on Earth should be seen as instrumental to providing an advantage in stage 2 competition or denying access to stage 2 competition by winning stage 1 on Earth.
They have existing infrastructure in space related to mining and manufacturing, allowing them to go big fast.
Other nations are in a competition for survival and don’t have resources spare for outer space or long-term investment.
They make a ridiculously large investment in space manufacturing that others wouldn’t consider because of the costs to the nation’s economy and security on Earth.
They do it slowly and stealthily using existing space assets until a critical mass is reached.
The Sun is 99.8% the mass of the Solar System. All the energy is there.
Aside from sheer power, I think a huge intelligence advantage on Earth could win out against a Dyson swarm. Like if I was controlling a Dyson swarm with AGI but there was an ASI on Earth, I would be scared. But I wouldn’t be worried about Earth’s economic might.
Thanks for this comment, very useful feedback.
In A&S’ paper, they assume a 5 year construction time for solar captors, which is essentially the doubling time. That is actually extremely conservative, especially if we’re considering post-AGI robotics. I imagine the construction time from asteroid material to solar captors might be on the order of days to weeks, but I definitely want to look into that. Great point. There might be other fundamental constraints though. The rate limiting factor is probably more likely to be a rare material required for something like onboard computers, or argon for ion thrusters, something like that.
I think the comparison to economic might is interesting. But a weaker actor on Earth trailing far behind the leading economic power could initiate Dyson swarm construction and overtake the leader with either a huge investment or a lead time. It’s not so much that they would wait around, but that they would change their strategy from building economic might on Earth to power generation in space[1]. In the end, if it’s the long-term future that has the most moral value, then the most important strategic outcome is who has control of that future. All the economic might of Earth cannot compete with a Dyson swarm[2], so the Dyson swarm owner has control of the future. Economic might on Earth should be seen as instrumental to providing an advantage in stage 2 competition or denying access to stage 2 competition by winning stage 1 on Earth.
I think one nation could get away with this if:
They have existing infrastructure in space related to mining and manufacturing, allowing them to go big fast.
Other nations are in a competition for survival and don’t have resources spare for outer space or long-term investment.
They make a ridiculously large investment in space manufacturing that others wouldn’t consider because of the costs to the nation’s economy and security on Earth.
They do it slowly and stealthily using existing space assets until a critical mass is reached.
The Sun is 99.8% the mass of the Solar System. All the energy is there.
Aside from sheer power, I think a huge intelligence advantage on Earth could win out against a Dyson swarm. Like if I was controlling a Dyson swarm with AGI but there was an ASI on Earth, I would be scared. But I wouldn’t be worried about Earth’s economic might.