In the coming months, it could be valuable to estimate the total EV of this fraud so we can 1) map actions to consequences and 2) more deeply understand what happened here.
That might include:
EV of total x-risk reduction FTX was expected to fund (% reduction * number of future lives spared)
-Loss of life from direct victims
-Reputation damage to EA and subsequent loss of funding, talent, and reduced growth
-Reduced efficacy of existing EA orgs due to damaged trust, reduced resources, and trauma
Some of these will be difficult to estimate. But I think we should know what we lost, and those engaged in fraud should know what it cost.
Yeah not sure EV is necessarily the right perspective, but I see where you’re going and think it’s an interesting thought experiment. Considering how SBF’s decision making and largely linear utility lead to high risk appetetite, this might have led him to underestimate harmful tail risk considering the global stage he was maintaining for EA.
It might be a big leap of faith, but assuming he justified some his actions with an ends justify the means attitude (with each marginal dollar gained having roughly equal utility to help others) , at what point tho did his social stature warrant the downside consideration of reputational damage for him and EA? When it was him early on at Alameda, a coin-flip with enough upside might have made sense since he wasn’t socially influential enough to be risking reputational damage, just his net worth.
But heading into FTX, led alone into lawmaker’s offices and every news outlet imaginable, he became a steward of EA in an unprecedented manner.. but it does not appear that maintaining his stature in a risk-reduced manner given his importance ever factored into his decision making.
In the coming months, it could be valuable to estimate the total EV of this fraud so we can 1) map actions to consequences and 2) more deeply understand what happened here.
That might include:
EV of total x-risk reduction FTX was expected to fund (% reduction * number of future lives spared)
-Loss of life from direct victims
-Reputation damage to EA and subsequent loss of funding, talent, and reduced growth
-Reduced efficacy of existing EA orgs due to damaged trust, reduced resources, and trauma
Some of these will be difficult to estimate. But I think we should know what we lost, and those engaged in fraud should know what it cost.
Yeah not sure EV is necessarily the right perspective, but I see where you’re going and think it’s an interesting thought experiment. Considering how SBF’s decision making and largely linear utility lead to high risk appetetite, this might have led him to underestimate harmful tail risk considering the global stage he was maintaining for EA.
It might be a big leap of faith, but assuming he justified some his actions with an ends justify the means attitude (with each marginal dollar gained having roughly equal utility to help others) , at what point tho did his social stature warrant the downside consideration of reputational damage for him and EA? When it was him early on at Alameda, a coin-flip with enough upside might have made sense since he wasn’t socially influential enough to be risking reputational damage, just his net worth.
But heading into FTX, led alone into lawmaker’s offices and every news outlet imaginable, he became a steward of EA in an unprecedented manner.. but it does not appear that maintaining his stature in a risk-reduced manner given his importance ever factored into his decision making.
This comment is being downvoted, but I think it’s probably a worthwhile exercise (even though I expect it to be really net negative)
Absolutely, profoundly net negative. By EV what I mean is “harm.”