I think this slightly misrepresents the corresponding article and the state of the forecasts. The quote from the linked article is:
By all reports, and as one would expect, Google’s Gemini looks to be substantially superior to GPT-4. We now have more details on that, and also word that Google plans to deploy it in December, Manifold gives it 82% to happen this year and similar probability of being superior to GPT-4 on release.
This doesn’t seem to exhibit that much confidence in “gemini being substantially superior”? I expect that if Zvi gave specific probabilites, they would be pretty reasonable.
ETA: I retract my claim about Zvi, on further examination, he seems pretty wrong here. That said, manifold doesn’t seem to have done too badly.
Further, manifold doesn’t seem that wrong here on GPT4 vs gemini? See for instance, this market:
The forecast has updated from 80% to about 60%, which doesn’t seem like much of an update.
I agree that we should update down on google competence and near term AGI, but it just doesn’t seem like that big of an update yet?
I think this slightly misrepresents the corresponding article and the state of the forecasts. The quote from the linked article is:This doesn’t seem to exhibit that much confidence in “gemini being substantially superior”? I expect that if Zvi gave specific probabilites, they would be pretty reasonable.ETA: I retract my claim about Zvi, on further examination, he seems pretty wrong here. That said, manifold doesn’t seem to have done too badly.
Further, manifold doesn’t seem that wrong here on GPT4 vs gemini? See for instance, this market:
The forecast has updated from 80% to about 60%, which doesn’t seem like much of an update.
I agree that we should update down on google competence and near term AGI, but it just doesn’t seem like that big of an update yet?