It is now unclear to me whether donating to HIPF from CEARCH is beneficial or harmful due to the possibility of their grants increasing food consumption.
I estimated buying beef, which I believe is the most cost-effective way of increasing animal welfare through diet, has a cost-effectiveness of 408 QALY/​$, 3.14 % (= 408/​(13.0*10^3)) of HIPF’s, for a cost of 6.32 $/​meat-kg. Consequently, I infer buying food which is cheaper than this by more than 0.198 $/​food-kg (= 0.0314*6.32), and donating the savings to HIPF increases animal welfare more. Legumes are generally cheaper than beef by much more than that.
I estimated buying beef has a cost-effectiveness of 37.8 % (= 408/​(1.08*10^3)) of GiveWell’s top charities, which had the highest cost-effectiveness besides HIPF’s in my analysis. So I now infer buying food which is cheaper than beef at 6.32 $/​meat-kg by more than 2.39 $/​food-kg (= 0.378*6.32), and donating the savings to GiveWell’s top charities increases animal welfare more. I feel like replacing beef with legumes is still worth it, but I am now much less confident.
It is now unclear to me whether donating to HIPF from CEARCH is beneficial or harmful due to the possibility of their grants increasing food consumption.
I have now estimated funding HIPF increases agricultural land 78.5 % as cost-effectively as I had calculated due to increasing calorie consumption. This is a minor change, so I maintain my recommendation of funding HIPF. I also confirmed that taxing beef decreases agricultural land. I estimated that consuming unprocessed red meat in the US increases agricultural land 1.72 k times as much as it decreases it from reducing life expectancy.
It is now unclear to me whether donating to HIPF from CEARCH is beneficial or harmful due to the possibility of their grants increasing food consumption.
I estimated buying beef has a cost-effectiveness of 37.8 % (= 408/​(1.08*10^3)) of GiveWell’s top charities, which had the highest cost-effectiveness besides HIPF’s in my analysis. So I now infer buying food which is cheaper than beef at 6.32 $/​meat-kg by more than 2.39 $/​food-kg (= 0.378*6.32), and donating the savings to GiveWell’s top charities increases animal welfare more. I feel like replacing beef with legumes is still worth it, but I am now much less confident.
Nevermind.