1⁄10,000 * 8 billion people = 800,000 current lives lost in expectation
The expected death toll would be much greater than 800 k assuming a typical tail distribution. This is the expected death toll linked solely to the maximum severity, but lower levels of severity would add to it. Assuming deaths follow a Pareto distribution with a tail index of 1.60, which characterises war deaths, the minimum deaths would be 25.3 M (= 8*10^9*(10^-4)^(1/1.60)). Consequently, the expected death toll would be 67.6 M (= 1.60/(1.60 − 1)*25.3*10^6), i.e. 1.11 (= 67.6/61) times the number of deaths in 2023, or 111 (= 67.6/0.608) times the number of malaria deaths in 2022. I certainly agree undergoing this risk would be wild.
Side note. I think the tail distribution will eventually decay faster than that of a Pareto distribution, but this makes my point stronger. In this case, the product between the deaths and their probability density would be lower for higher levels of severity, which means the expected deaths linked to such levels would represent a smaller fraction of the overall expected death toll.
Thanks for pointing that out, Ted!
The expected death toll would be much greater than 800 k assuming a typical tail distribution. This is the expected death toll linked solely to the maximum severity, but lower levels of severity would add to it. Assuming deaths follow a Pareto distribution with a tail index of 1.60, which characterises war deaths, the minimum deaths would be 25.3 M (= 8*10^9*(10^-4)^(1/1.60)). Consequently, the expected death toll would be 67.6 M (= 1.60/(1.60 − 1)*25.3*10^6), i.e. 1.11 (= 67.6/61) times the number of deaths in 2023, or 111 (= 67.6/0.608) times the number of malaria deaths in 2022. I certainly agree undergoing this risk would be wild.
Side note. I think the tail distribution will eventually decay faster than that of a Pareto distribution, but this makes my point stronger. In this case, the product between the deaths and their probability density would be lower for higher levels of severity, which means the expected deaths linked to such levels would represent a smaller fraction of the overall expected death toll.