I think people should definitely consider and assign non-trivial probability to the LTBT being powerless (probably >10%), which feels like the primary point of the post. Do you disagree with that assessment of probabilities (if so, I would probably be open to bets).
How are you defining “powerless”? See my previous comment: I think the common meaning of “powerless” implies not just significant constraints on power but rather the complete absence thereof.
I would say that the LTBT is powerless iff it can be trivially prevented from accomplishing its primary function—overriding the financial interests of the for-profit Anthropic investors—by those investors, such as with a simple majority (which is the normal standard of corporate control). I think this is very unlikely to be true, p<5%.
I think people should definitely consider and assign non-trivial probability to the LTBT being powerless (probably >10%), which feels like the primary point of the post. Do you disagree with that assessment of probabilities (if so, I would probably be open to bets).
How are you defining “powerless”? See my previous comment: I think the common meaning of “powerless” implies not just significant constraints on power but rather the complete absence thereof.
I would say that the LTBT is powerless iff it can be trivially prevented from accomplishing its primary function—overriding the financial interests of the for-profit Anthropic investors—by those investors, such as with a simple majority (which is the normal standard of corporate control). I think this is very unlikely to be true, p<5%.