I agree that some “doomers” (you may count me as one) are “pessimistic”, being biased towards a negative outcome. I can’t rule out that I’m “overly cautious”. However, I’d argue that this is net positive for AI safety on the same grounds that I think optimism as I defined it is net positive under different circumstances, as described.
I agree that the word “optimism” can be used in different ways, that’s why I gave a definition of the way I usually use it. My post was a reaction to Pope and Belrose, but as I stated, not about their arguments but generally about being “optimistic” in the way I defined it. Nora Belrose said in a comment on LessWrong that my way of defining optimism is not how they meant it, and as long as I don’t analyze their texts, I have to accept that. But I think my definition of optimism fits in the range of common uses of the word (see Wikipedia, for example). All I did was trying to point out that this kind of “positive outcome bias” may be beneficial under certain circumstances, but not for thinking about AI safety.
I believe that if Pope and Belrose try to have a truly rational and unbiased stance, the term “AI Optimism” is at least misleading, as it can be understood in the way I have understood it. I hope this post is at least helpful in the sense that I have pointed that possible misunderstanding out.
I agree that some “doomers” (you may count me as one) are “pessimistic”, being biased towards a negative outcome. I can’t rule out that I’m “overly cautious”. However, I’d argue that this is net positive for AI safety on the same grounds that I think optimism as I defined it is net positive under different circumstances, as described.
I agree that the word “optimism” can be used in different ways, that’s why I gave a definition of the way I usually use it. My post was a reaction to Pope and Belrose, but as I stated, not about their arguments but generally about being “optimistic” in the way I defined it. Nora Belrose said in a comment on LessWrong that my way of defining optimism is not how they meant it, and as long as I don’t analyze their texts, I have to accept that. But I think my definition of optimism fits in the range of common uses of the word (see Wikipedia, for example). All I did was trying to point out that this kind of “positive outcome bias” may be beneficial under certain circumstances, but not for thinking about AI safety.
I believe that if Pope and Belrose try to have a truly rational and unbiased stance, the term “AI Optimism” is at least misleading, as it can be understood in the way I have understood it. I hope this post is at least helpful in the sense that I have pointed that possible misunderstanding out.