This thread, and these kinds of discussions are very revealing and worth pursuing to the end.
Let’s go with Scott Alexander’s estimate of a 3% lifetime chance of a man being falsely accused of rape and a 15% chance of a woman being raped. Let’s assume EA is 70% men vs 30% women.
How much “weight” should the community give to guarding against false accusations vs to guarding against the prevalence of sexual abuse (since not believing accusations lets the perpetrator repeat their actions)? This includes a value judgement on the harm from sexual assault vs the harm from reputational damage, etc.
Since this seems to be a difficult tradeoff and the community health team/EA organization leaders are making these tradeoffs that include value judgements (and EAs don’t usually have the same value judgements as the rest of society), the current community members and people in charge should be transparent about these value judgements and overall weights (maybe through a survey?).
It would help current and future EAs decide if they want to be a part of the community based on how they value their own welfare.
I think one question would be the extent to which the types of actions Community Health can take would reduce a perpetrator’s ability to commit future assaults. I don’t know the answer to that but would be interested in what others thought.
I understand the desire to for quantification and transparency, but my guess is this particular quantity is relatively far down the list of parameters to publicly estimate, especially given the methodological difficulty. If you thought it was particularly pressing maybe you could have a go at it? Or perhaps there is some existing economic literature on the subject. I suppose the level burden of proof applied in court cases is a starting point.
This thread, and these kinds of discussions are very revealing and worth pursuing to the end.
Let’s go with Scott Alexander’s estimate of a 3% lifetime chance of a man being falsely accused of rape and a 15% chance of a woman being raped. Let’s assume EA is 70% men vs 30% women.
How much “weight” should the community give to guarding against false accusations vs to guarding against the prevalence of sexual abuse (since not believing accusations lets the perpetrator repeat their actions)? This includes a value judgement on the harm from sexual assault vs the harm from reputational damage, etc.
Since this seems to be a difficult tradeoff and the community health team/EA organization leaders are making these tradeoffs that include value judgements (and EAs don’t usually have the same value judgements as the rest of society), the current community members and people in charge should be transparent about these value judgements and overall weights (maybe through a survey?).
It would help current and future EAs decide if they want to be a part of the community based on how they value their own welfare.
I think one question would be the extent to which the types of actions Community Health can take would reduce a perpetrator’s ability to commit future assaults. I don’t know the answer to that but would be interested in what others thought.
I understand the desire to for quantification and transparency, but my guess is this particular quantity is relatively far down the list of parameters to publicly estimate, especially given the methodological difficulty. If you thought it was particularly pressing maybe you could have a go at it? Or perhaps there is some existing economic literature on the subject. I suppose the level burden of proof applied in court cases is a starting point.