it’s possible Trump is better placed to negotiate a binding treaty with China (similar to the idea that ‘only Nixon could go to China’), even if it’s not clear he’ll want to do so.
Some related points:
Trump seems like someone who likes winning, but hates losing, and also likes making deals. If Deepseek increases the probability that the US will lose, that makes it more attractive to negotiate an end to the race. This seems true from both a Trump-psychology perspective, and a rational-game-theorist perspective.
Elon Musk seems to have a good relationship with Chinese leadership.
Releasing open-source AI seems like more of a way to prevent someone else from winning than a way to win yourself.
I suppose one possible approach would be to try to get some sort of back-channel dialogue going, to start drafting a treaty which can be invoked if political momentum appears.
Some related points:
Trump seems like someone who likes winning, but hates losing, and also likes making deals. If Deepseek increases the probability that the US will lose, that makes it more attractive to negotiate an end to the race. This seems true from both a Trump-psychology perspective, and a rational-game-theorist perspective.
Elon Musk seems to have a good relationship with Chinese leadership.
Releasing open-source AI seems like more of a way to prevent someone else from winning than a way to win yourself.
Chinese leadership may be concerned about x-risks.
I suppose one possible approach would be to try to get some sort of back-channel dialogue going, to start drafting a treaty which can be invoked if political momentum appears.