Two years ago short timelines to superintelligence meant decades. That you would structure this bet such that it resolves in just a few years is itself evidence that timelines are getting shorter.
That you would propose the bet at even odds also does not gesture toward your confidence.
Finally, what money means after superintelligence is itself hotly debated, especially for worst-case doomers (the people most likely to expect three year timelines to ASI are also the exact people who don’t expect to be alive to collect their winnings).
I think it’s possible for a betting structure to prove some kind of point about timelines, but this isn’t it.
I am also potentially open to a bet where I transfer money to the person bullish on AI timelines now. I bet Greg Coulbourn 10 k$ this way. However, I would have to trust the person betting with me more than in the case of the bet I linked to above. On this, money being less valuable after superintellgence (including due to supposedly higher risk of death) has the net effect of moving the break-even resolution date forward. As I say in the post I linked to, “We can agree on another resolution date such that the bet is good for you”. The resolution date I proposed (end of 2028) was supposed to make the bet just slightly positive for people bullish on AI timelines. However, my views are closer to those of the median expert in 2023, whose median date of full automation was 2073.
Thanks for the post, Lintz. I would be happy to bet 10 k$ against short AI timelines.
Two years ago short timelines to superintelligence meant decades. That you would structure this bet such that it resolves in just a few years is itself evidence that timelines are getting shorter.
That you would propose the bet at even odds also does not gesture toward your confidence.
Finally, what money means after superintelligence is itself hotly debated, especially for worst-case doomers (the people most likely to expect three year timelines to ASI are also the exact people who don’t expect to be alive to collect their winnings).
I think it’s possible for a betting structure to prove some kind of point about timelines, but this isn’t it.
Thanks, yams.
I am also potentially open to a bet where I transfer money to the person bullish on AI timelines now. I bet Greg Coulbourn 10 k$ this way. However, I would have to trust the person betting with me more than in the case of the bet I linked to above. On this, money being less valuable after superintellgence (including due to supposedly higher risk of death) has the net effect of moving the break-even resolution date forward. As I say in the post I linked to, “We can agree on another resolution date such that the bet is good for you”. The resolution date I proposed (end of 2028) was supposed to make the bet just slightly positive for people bullish on AI timelines. However, my views are closer to those of the median expert in 2023, whose median date of full automation was 2073.