In your first scenario, if Alice sees Bob seems to be saying “Oh, well then I’ve just got to accept that there’s a 5% chance”
Maybe a crux here is what fraction of people in the role of Bob would instead convince themselves that the unconditional estimate is nonsense (due to motivated reasoning).
Maybe a crux here is what fraction of people in the role of Bob would instead convince themselves that the unconditional estimate is nonsense (due to motivated reasoning).