But under diversity-valuing ethical theories, if we take a reasonable estimate of 10,000 meaningfully distinct shrimp minds at birth times 1 million possible external environmental inputs to those minds, that’s only 10 billion distinct shrimp lived experiences.
Why is 10,000 meaningfully distinct shrimp minds at birth a reasonable estimate? Why is 1 million possible external environmental inputs to those minds a reasonable estimate?
Also, the argument doesn’t take into account uncertainty about these numbers. You discuss the possibility that we could be away from the ceiling, but not what to do under uncertainty. If there’s a 1% chance that nearly all shrimp experiences are meaningfully distinct in practice, then we can just multiply through by 1% as a lower bound (if risk neutral).
Why is 10,000 meaningfully distinct shrimp minds at birth a reasonable estimate? Why is 1 million possible external environmental inputs to those minds a reasonable estimate?
Also, the argument doesn’t take into account uncertainty about these numbers. You discuss the possibility that we could be away from the ceiling, but not what to do under uncertainty. If there’s a 1% chance that nearly all shrimp experiences are meaningfully distinct in practice, then we can just multiply through by 1% as a lower bound (if risk neutral).