But it doesn’t make sense to me to analogise it to a risk in putting up a sail.
I think this depends on the timeframe. Over a longer one, looking into the estimated destroyable area by nuclear weapons, nuclear risk looks like a transition risk (see graph below). In addition, I think the nuclear extinction risk has decreased even more than the destroyable area, since I believe greater wealth has made society more resilient to the effects of nuclear war and nuclear winter. For reference, I estimated the current annual nuclear extinction risk is 5.93*10^-12.
Nice discussion, Owen and titotal!
I think this depends on the timeframe. Over a longer one, looking into the estimated destroyable area by nuclear weapons, nuclear risk looks like a transition risk (see graph below). In addition, I think the nuclear extinction risk has decreased even more than the destroyable area, since I believe greater wealth has made society more resilient to the effects of nuclear war and nuclear winter. For reference, I estimated the current annual nuclear extinction risk is 5.93*10^-12.