This can be avoided with a treaty that requires full access given to international inspectors. This already happens with the IAEA and was set up even in the far greater tensions of the cold war. If someone like Iran tries to kick out the inspectors, everyone assumes they’re trying to develop nuclear weapons and takes serious action (harsh sanctions, airstrikes, even the threat of war).
If governments think of this as an existential threat, they should agree to it for the same reasons they did with the IAEA. And while there’s big incentives to defect (unless they have very high p(doom)), there is also the knowledge that kicking out inspectors will lead to potential war and their rivals defecting too.
This can be avoided with a treaty that requires full access given to international inspectors. This already happens with the IAEA and was set up even in the far greater tensions of the cold war. If someone like Iran tries to kick out the inspectors, everyone assumes they’re trying to develop nuclear weapons and takes serious action (harsh sanctions, airstrikes, even the threat of war).
If governments think of this as an existential threat, they should agree to it for the same reasons they did with the IAEA. And while there’s big incentives to defect (unless they have very high p(doom)), there is also the knowledge that kicking out inspectors will lead to potential war and their rivals defecting too.