(apologies for slowness; I’m not here much) I’d say it’s more about being willing to update on less direct evidence when the risk of getting more direct evidence is high.
Clearly we should aim to get more evidence. The question is how to best do that safely. At present we seem to be taking the default path—of gathering evidence in about the easiest way, rather than going for something harder, slower and safer. (e.g. all the “we need to work with frontier models” stuff; I do expect that’s most efficient on the empirical side; I don’t expect it’s a safe approach)
(apologies for slowness; I’m not here much)
I’d say it’s more about being willing to update on less direct evidence when the risk of getting more direct evidence is high.
Clearly we should aim to get more evidence. The question is how to best do that safely. At present we seem to be taking the default path—of gathering evidence in about the easiest way, rather than going for something harder, slower and safer. (e.g. all the “we need to work with frontier models” stuff; I do expect that’s most efficient on the empirical side; I don’t expect it’s a safe approach)