Nice post! Copying the comment I left on the draft (edited for clarity) —
I agree with both conclusions, but I don’t think your argument is the strongest reason to buy those conclusions.
My picture of how large-scale space expansion goes involves probes (not humans) being sent out after AGI. Then a reasonable default might be that the plans and values embedded in humanity’s first large-scale space settlement initiatives are set by the plans and values of some very large and technologically advanced political faction at the time (capable of launching such a significant initiative by force or unanimity), rather than a smaller number of humans who were early to settle some part of the Solar System.
I then picture most human-originating life to not resemble biological humans (more like digital people). In this case it’s very hard to imagine how farming animals would make any sense.
Even with shorter-term and human-led space settlement, like bases on the Moon and Mars, I expect it to make very little logistical sense to farm animals (regardless of the psychological profile of whoever is doing the settlement). The first settlements will be water and space and especially labour constrained, and raising animals is going to look needlessly painful and inefficient without the big economies of scale of factory farms.
That said, if animals are farmed in early settlements, then note that smaller animals tend to be the most efficient at converting feed into human-palatable calories (and also the most space-efficient). For that reason some people suggest insect farming (e.g. crickets, mealworms), which does seem much more likely than livestock or poultry! But another option is bioreactors of the kind being developed on Earth. In theory they could become more efficient than animals and would then make most practical sense (since the capital cost to build the reactor isn’t going to matter; taking anything into space is already crazy expensive). Also a lot of food will probably be imported as payload early on; unsure if that’s relevant.
So I think I’m saying the cultural attitudes of early space settlers is probably less important than the practical mechanisms by which most of space is eventually settled. Especially if most future people are not biological humans, which kind of moots the question.
I do think it’s valuable and somewhat relieving to point out that animal farming could plausibly remain an Earth-only problem!
Thanks, makes sense, I think I roughly agree with these takes. I think I wanted to write about this version of the argument in particular as I think the resource-based and technological obsoletion of farming animals arguments have mostly already been made. Unsurprising perhaps if the better arguments are already made first and the secondary arguments are left!
Nice post! Copying the comment I left on the draft (edited for clarity) —
I agree with both conclusions, but I don’t think your argument is the strongest reason to buy those conclusions.
My picture of how large-scale space expansion goes involves probes (not humans) being sent out after AGI. Then a reasonable default might be that the plans and values embedded in humanity’s first large-scale space settlement initiatives are set by the plans and values of some very large and technologically advanced political faction at the time (capable of launching such a significant initiative by force or unanimity), rather than a smaller number of humans who were early to settle some part of the Solar System.
I then picture most human-originating life to not resemble biological humans (more like digital people). In this case it’s very hard to imagine how farming animals would make any sense.
Even with shorter-term and human-led space settlement, like bases on the Moon and Mars, I expect it to make very little logistical sense to farm animals (regardless of the psychological profile of whoever is doing the settlement). The first settlements will be water and space and especially labour constrained, and raising animals is going to look needlessly painful and inefficient without the big economies of scale of factory farms.
That said, if animals are farmed in early settlements, then note that smaller animals tend to be the most efficient at converting feed into human-palatable calories (and also the most space-efficient). For that reason some people suggest insect farming (e.g. crickets, mealworms), which does seem much more likely than livestock or poultry! But another option is bioreactors of the kind being developed on Earth. In theory they could become more efficient than animals and would then make most practical sense (since the capital cost to build the reactor isn’t going to matter; taking anything into space is already crazy expensive). Also a lot of food will probably be imported as payload early on; unsure if that’s relevant.
So I think I’m saying the cultural attitudes of early space settlers is probably less important than the practical mechanisms by which most of space is eventually settled. Especially if most future people are not biological humans, which kind of moots the question.
I do think it’s valuable and somewhat relieving to point out that animal farming could plausibly remain an Earth-only problem!
Thanks, makes sense, I think I roughly agree with these takes. I think I wanted to write about this version of the argument in particular as I think the resource-based and technological obsoletion of farming animals arguments have mostly already been made. Unsurprising perhaps if the better arguments are already made first and the secondary arguments are left!