My hunch is also that 80,000 Hours and most organisations have diminishing marginal cost-effectiveness. As far as I know from our conversations, on balance this is Sindy’s view too.
You need to be very careful about what margin and output you’re talking about.
As I discuss in my long comment above, I think it’s unclear whether our annual ratio of cost per plan change will go up or down, and I think there’s a good chance it continues to drop, as it has the last 4 years.
On the other hand, if you’re talking about total value created per dollar (including all forms of value), then that seems like it’s more likely to be going down. It seems intuitive that our earliest supporters who made 80k possible had more impact than supporters today.
Though even that’s not clear. You could get increasing returns due to economies of scale or tipping point effects and so on.
You need to be very careful about what margin and output you’re talking about.
As I discuss in my long comment above, I think it’s unclear whether our annual ratio of cost per plan change will go up or down, and I think there’s a good chance it continues to drop, as it has the last 4 years.
On the other hand, if you’re talking about total value created per dollar (including all forms of value), then that seems like it’s more likely to be going down. It seems intuitive that our earliest supporters who made 80k possible had more impact than supporters today.
Though even that’s not clear. You could get increasing returns due to economies of scale or tipping point effects and so on.