Peter, indeed your point #2 about uncertainty is what I discuss in the last point of “2) Outcome measures”, under “Model limitations”. I argued in a handwaving way that because 80K still causes some lower risk and lower return global health type interventions—which our aggregation model seems to favor, probably due to the Bayesian prior—it will probably still beat MIRI that focuses exclusively on high risk, high return things that the model seems to penalize. But yes we should have modeled it in this way.
Peter, indeed your point #2 about uncertainty is what I discuss in the last point of “2) Outcome measures”, under “Model limitations”. I argued in a handwaving way that because 80K still causes some lower risk and lower return global health type interventions—which our aggregation model seems to favor, probably due to the Bayesian prior—it will probably still beat MIRI that focuses exclusively on high risk, high return things that the model seems to penalize. But yes we should have modeled it in this way.